The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
A case came under our notice of the extreme danger of good luck attending
a first operation, but it was in another market. A Spaniard had settled
in London with his wife and family, and had entered into partnership
with another gentleman. Much money had been made in iron, and prices had
attained to an unprecedented figure (it was in 1872). He bought on pure
speculation 30,000 tons, and cleared £6,000 profit. Elated with such
success, his next operation was a purchase of 40,000 tons. The price fell
£1 a ton. He lost all his own and his partner’s money, and fled from the
country leaving his family destitute.
But when two or three losses have been incurred the confidence becomes
somewhat shaken, especially after a large operation has been attempted,
so as to recover the losses on several smaller ones at one _coup_,
and has failed. Then some sort of a system will be tried, but the bad
judgment which has landed the haphazard speculator so far without his
having perceived the necessity of machinery and a system, will prevent
his adhering to any set purpose. Such a man acts on this information and
on that, led away by the plausibility of a wiser head possessed by a
person who goes about like a big fish in the deep waters, disposing of
the smaller fry for his own purposes.
[Sidenote: VERY FEW FAILURES MADE PUBLIC.]
To dig to the bottom of the question without attempting further to
widen it, what are the chances against the haphazard speculator? If
we ask ourselves whether we have known personally any individuals who
have succeeded as haphazard speculators, we must reply emphatically in
the negative. It occurs to us on making this observation that we have
heard of one individual, who may be described as a haphazard speculator
who did get clear off with £100,000, and we believe it to be correct.
Everything he touched chanced to go the right way until one morning he
raised his hat to his friends and the members who were in the markets at
the time, and bid them farewell. He was a solitary instance of a man with
sufficient strength of character to say to himself, “Thus far shalt thou
go and no farther,” and he adhered to it. Many had made as much before,
but they could never stop until it was all lost again. How is it so
little is heard of those who venture and fail, for the practice would be
greatly discouraged if the failures always came to light. All concerned
are interested in keeping such matters quiet for obvious reasons. The
broker who does the business for the speculator can measure his means
pretty well at the outset, and takes care to keep his client informed so
that he may persuade him to diminish his commitments if the times are not
promising. The business is remunerative enough to make it worth while to
run some risk, and as the client will have always something, at least, to
meet his losses with, the broker is generally prepared for accidents. The
speculator will, for his own sake, keep his misfortunes to himself, and
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