The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation — John Shaqi
The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
[Sidenote: EVERY COMMERCIAL REVULSION DESTROYS HOUSES OF A SPECULATIVE
CHARACTER, AND THROWS THE GOOD BUSINESS INTO THE HANDS OF THE LARGE,
SOUND ESTABLISHMENTS.]
The incalculable mischief that is caused in commercial affairs at certain
periods, arises for the most part from the operations of comparatively
small houses, which have insufficient capital to enable them to lay
down the necessary machinery for duly informing themselves upon all the
needful points about which they should be accurately posted with untiring
continuity. In a great commercial city a thoroughly experienced banker
or money-lender can say very nearly by heart the names of the merchant
houses who are known to be beyond all question good for any amount for
which they may write their signature. Starting from this nucleus, circles
may be drawn defining the various degrees of credit which may be allowed
to commercial houses, until a supposed outermost and largest ring of all
is reached, which includes the shaky, struggling, poor establishments.
Those whose knowledge and experience in such matters is very great could
so classify all traders. Now, it must be evident that when the chaos
which follows a violent commercial revulsion begins to be transformed
into order, the business which the withdrawal of confidence is sure to
throw as much as possible upon the centre or nucleus of firms which are
comparatively unaffected by any revulsion, will commence gradually to
work outwards again, overflowing ring after ring of the supposed lines
which we suggest as defining the degrees of stability. This ebb and flow
of the tide of credit, so to speak, is the result of competition, and
of the fluctuations in commercial affairs, and must always recur with
greater or less force and rapidity. It is an automatic working of the
laws of commercial affairs which characterizes all markets. As the nature
of a large proportion of mercantile business must partake more and more
of the speculative character to keep pace with the keener competition of
greater capitals employed by a larger number of first-class firms, so
must the machinery requisite for each individual firm under the altered
circumstances through which prices are affected in all markets become
more elaborate. If this view be correct it would seem to follow that the
important business of the world must be more and more settling itself
into the hands of large capitalists; and that although new houses in
all departments of trade will always be starting in proportion to the
aggregate growth of the commerce of the world, the large and strong firms
will increase in a greater ratio, and the number of the small ones will
tend to diminish.
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