The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation — John Shaqi
The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
[Sidenote: MONEY FAMINES SHOULD HENCEFORTH BE AS IMPROBABLE OF OCCURRENCE
AS CORN FAMINES.]
[Sidenote: ADVANTAGES DERIVED FROM OPENING UP COMMUNICATIONS WITH THE
CORN-GROWING PROVINCES OF RUSSIA.]
We are of opinion that the complete communication that is now established
between the commercial and monetary markets of Europe will tend
gradually, if not rapidly, which is very probable, to diminish the
effects of what we understand by commercial crises. The opinion embodied
in this sentence which was written before the American financial crisis
of 1873 broke out, has been corroborated by the great assistance afforded
by the Atlantic cable in mitigating the immediate effects of the first
symptoms upon the public mind, and in at once confining the disorder
within limits which would probably have been impossible in the absence
of telegraphic communication. The main reason why we have suffered from
monetary panics so severely during the first three quarters of the
present century has been from the absence of rapid communication with
other monetary and commercial centres, as well as from the absence of
large auxiliary monetary centres holding a good average supply of cash,
to be lent out on good security to the highest bidder for the time. The
facilities which now exist for applying the over-plus of grain at one
centre of population to satisfy the deficiency at another, has done away
with famines. The late exception of Persia proves the rule. Corn is a
commodity, and money is a commodity. What applies to one, as regards
demand and supply, applies also to the other. A strange nervousness
still exists in some quarters about the amount of the Bank reserve,
fears being entertained that it will be found too small when the time of
pressure comes. Persons who are so loud in their protests at reductions
in the Bank rate can never have been buyers of money themselves, or, in
other words, sellers of bills. To keep the value of money the smallest
fraction above what is actually necessary at the time, by the capricious
exercise of a brief authority, is to commit an act of unwarrantable
injustice, and to rob the needy. We say if the Bank directors maintain
a higher rate of discount than is necessary, they rob the needy, and
compel holders of bills to pay an illegitimately high rate of discount.
It is urged in defence of this nervousness, that the attractive power
of a higher rate is slow, and that the till may be exhausted before the
required supply arrives. As and when it may be necessary the Bank should
raise or lower its rate, maintaining a reserve which is sufficient at all
times if it be about one-third of the liabilities. To speculate upon the
future, is to attempt to discount influences which may never be felt.
To maintain for a day a higher rate than is necessary, is to tax the
public for private ends, to reinstate Protection, and to disregard sound
economic principles. To illustrate what we mean, take the case of bread
famines.
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