The Great War has completely destroyed German influence in the Near
East. In the way of any resumption of German enterprise in Turkey
are formidable obstacles which are not likely to be removed for some
time. To begin with, the Turks themselves will not encourage German
attempts to recover the Bagdad Railway or other property rights which
were liquidated by the Treaty of Versailles. Among Turkish Nationalists
there is satisfaction that Turkey has “shaken off the yoke of the
ambitious leaders who dragged the country into the general war on the
side of Germany” and has got rid of the “arrogance” of the Germans who
infested the Near East during the last years of the war. Resentment at
German military domination of Turkey during 1917 and 1918 will not soon
disappear.[1]
Furthermore, Germany possesses neither the disposition nor the power
to regain her former preëminence in the Near East. The confiscation by
the Treaty of Versailles of private property in foreign investments
has set a precedent which will make German investors—as well as
prudent investors everywhere—extremely chary of utilizing their funds
for the promotion of such enterprises as the Bagdad Railway. The
surplus production and surplus capital of Germany may be absorbed
by reparations payments or attracted to such enterprises as the
reconstruction of the German merchant marine. But the _Drang nach
Osten_ has become a thing of the past. The dismemberment of the
Austrian Empire and the erection of the Jugoslav Kingdom have shut
off German access, through friendly states, to the Balkan Peninsula
and Asiatic Turkey. Formidable customs barriers will stand in the way
of overland trade with the Near East and render railway traffic from
“Berlin to Bagdad” unprofitable. Defeat and disarmament have destroyed
German prestige in the Moslem world. Democratization of both Germany
and Turkey, it is hoped, will render increasingly difficult the kind of
secret intrigue that characterized Turco-German relations during the
régime of William II and of Abdul Hamid. If Germany returns to the Near
East in the next generation or two, it is not likely to be in the rôle
of an Imperial Germany promoting railway enterprises of great economic
and strategic importance.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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