"Germany realises that her soldiers are none too many, and wants to make the best of them. That's why they will use any amount of temporary fortification, and will abstain from the compact formations which were quite all right forty years ago, but have proved complete failures on this occasion. "When the Germans are on their fortified line they will wait for a fresh supply of men and guns. The guns used in Belgium are mostly done for, and have gone back to Essen to be repaired, and in many cases to be melted down again. "As you have noticed, Germany seems to despise the Austrians' help. That is very wrong; if nothing else, Austria has taken away from Germany the shock of the largest part of the Russian Army, at least for the present moment. "The war will only come to an end for one of the three following reasons:-- "(1) The Triple Entente obtains successes in both theatres of operation and breaks the line of temporary fortification I just told you about; then France and England would have the way open to Berlin, and if the Russians were successful in the East, Germany would be forced to ask for peace. "(2) The Germans hurry up and break the Franco-English resistance before the new English Army and the Colonial forces (which seem to be of real advantage only in hot weather) step in next spring. This will be now very difficult, as there are two large factors in the problem: the Franco-British Fleet and the Russian Army. "(3) A neutral Power steps in and makes the scales go down at one or the other side. If this intervention should be in favour of the Entente the crushing of Austria would be almost immediate, and all the forces could be concentrated against Germany, so that the latter would be forced to ask for peace. "What is certain is that the war will have a sort of steady character up to March or April, and that Germany reckons she will have to make her maximum effort at that moment. "Somebody says the end of this war will be hurried by financial reasons. I do not think that these will, alone, be strong enough to settle this gigantic struggle. They are certainly an element worth considering, but only after the military one." "And what will be the consequences of this war?" I ask. "I don't think the difference on the European map will be big in either case. "Germany has fully realised what a mistake was the cession of Alsace-Lorraine by France. The colonies will certainly be the most affected by the future peace; but, of course, nowadays a war like this has hardly any pretension of leading to the annexing of new territories. What Europe is struggling for is supremacy of the economical interests of one nation over another. "The idea that the largest Empire is the most powerful is childish, and if this had not been proved a long time ago the present European war would be enough to do so." CHAPTER II POTSDAM AND HAMBURG