Worlds in the making: The evolution of the universeArrhenius, Svante
Science
Worlds in the making: The evolution of the universe
Arrhenius, Svante
Cosmogony
Fourier and Pouillet now thought that the atmosphere of our earth
should be endowed with properties resembling those of glass, as regards
permeability of heat. Tyndall later proved this assumption to be
correct. The chief invisible constituents of the air which participate
in this effect are water vapor, which is always found in a certain
quantity in the air, and carbonic acid, also ozone and hydrocarbons.
These latter occur in such small quantities that no allowance has been
made for them so far in the calculations. Of late, however, we have
been supplied with very careful observations on the permeability to
heat of carbonic acid and of water vapor. With the help of these data
I have calculated that if the atmosphere were deprived of all its
carbonic acid—of which it contains only 0.03 per cent. by volume—the
temperature of the earth’s surface would fall by about 21°. This
lowering of the temperature would diminish the amount of water vapor
in the atmosphere, and would cause a further almost equally strong
fall of temperature. The examples, so far as they go, demonstrate that
comparatively unimportant variations in the composition of the air
have a very great influence. If the quantity of carbonic acid in the
air should sink to one-half its present percentage, the temperature
would fall by about 4°; a diminution to one-quarter would reduce the
temperature by 8°. On the other hand, any doubling of the percentage of
carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth’s
surface by 4°; and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the
temperature would rise by 8°. Further, a diminution of the carbonic
acid percentage would accentuate the temperature differences between
the different portions of the earth, while an increase in this
percentage would tend to equalize the temperature.
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