Worlds in the making: The evolution of the universeArrhenius, Svante
Science
Worlds in the making: The evolution of the universe
Arrhenius, Svante
Cosmogony
The question, however, is whether any such temperature fluctuations
have really been observed on the surface of the earth. The geologists
would answer: yes. Our historical era was preceded by a period in which
the mean temperature was by 2° (3.6 F.) higher than at present. We
recognize this from the former distribution of the ordinary hazel-nut
and of the water-nut (_Trapa natans_). Fossil nuts of these two species
have been found in localities where the plants could not thrive in
the present climate. This age, again, was preceded by an age which,
we are pretty certain, drove the inhabitants of northern Europe from
their old abodes. The glacial age must have been divided into several
periods, alternating with intervals of milder climates, the so-called
inter-glacial periods. The space of time which is characterized by
these glacial periods, when the temperature—according to measurements
based upon the study of the spreading of glaciers in the Alps—must
have been about 5° (8° F.) lower than now, has been estimated by
geologists at not less than 100,000 years. This epoch was preceded by
a warmer age, in which the temperature, to judge from fossilized plants
of those days, must at times have been by 8° or 9° (14° or 16° F.)
higher than at present, and, moreover, much more uniformly distributed
over the whole earth (Eocene). Pronounced fluctuations of this kind in
the climate have also occurred in former geological periods.
Are we now justified in supposing that the percentage of carbon dioxide
in the air has varied to an extent sufficient to account for the
temperature changes? This question has been answered in the affirmative
by Högbom, and, in later times, by Stevenson. The actual percentage of
carbonic acid in the air is so insignificant that the annual combustion
of coal, which has now (1904) risen to about 900 million tons and is
rapidly increasing,[3] carries about one-seven-hundredth part of its
percentage of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Although the sea, by
absorbing carbonic acid, acts as a regulator of huge capacity, which
takes up about five-sixths of the produced carbonic acid, we yet
recognize that the slight percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere
may by the advances of industry be changed to a noticeable degree in
the course of a few centuries. That would imply that there is no real
stability in the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air, which is
probably subject to considerable fluctuations in the course of time.
[Footnote 3: It amounted in 1890 to 510 million tons; in 1894,
to 550; in 1899, to 690; and in 1904, to 890 million tons.]
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