A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I
John Stuart Mill · en
According to the notion which the ancients entertained of induction, the
foregoing were cases of as legitimate inference as any inductions
whatever. In these two instances, in which, the conclusion being false,
the ground of inference must have been insufficient, there was,
nevertheless, as much ground for it as this conception of induction
admitted of. The induction of the ancients has been well described by
Bacon, under the name of "Inductio per enumerationem simplicem, ubi non
reperitur instantia contradictoria." It consists in ascribing the
character of general truths to all propositions which are true in every
instance that we happen to know of. This is the kind of induction which
is natural to the mind when unaccustomed to scientific methods. The
tendency, which some call an instinct, and which others account for by
association, to infer the future from the past, the known from the
unknown, is simply a habit of expecting that what has been found true
once or several times, and never yet found false, will be found true
again. Whether the instances are few or many, conclusive or
inconclusive, does not much affect the matter: these are considerations
which occur only on reflection; the unprompted tendency of the mind is
to generalize its experience, provided this points all in one direction;
provided no other experience of a conflicting character comes unsought.
The notion of seeking it, of experimenting for it, of _interrogating_
nature (to use Bacon's expression) is of much later growth. The
observation of nature, by uncultivated intellects, is purely passive:
they accept the facts which present themselves, without taking the
trouble of searching for more: it is a superior mind only which asks
itself what facts are needed to enable it to come to a safe conclusion,
and then looks out for these.
But though we have always a propensity to generalize from unvarying
experience, we are not always warranted in doing so. Before we can be at
liberty to conclude that something is universally true because we have
never known an instance to the contrary, we must have reason to believe
that if there were in nature any instances to the contrary, we should
have known of them. This assurance, in the great majority of cases, we
cannot have, or can have only in a very moderate degree. The possibility
of having it, is the foundation on which we shall see hereafter that
induction by simple enumeration may in some remarkable cases amount
practically to proof.[12] No such assurance, however, can be had, on any
of the ordinary subjects of scientific inquiry. Popular notions are
usually founded on induction by simple enumeration; in science it
carries us but a little way. We are forced to begin with it; we must
often rely on it provisionally, in the absence of means of more
searching investigation. But, for the accurate study of nature, we
require a surer and a more potent instrument.