A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I
John Stuart Mill · en
It was, above all, by pointing out the insufficiency of this rude and
loose conception of Induction, that Bacon merited the title so generally
awarded to him, of Founder of the Inductive Philosophy. The value of his
own contributions to a more philosophical theory of the subject has
certainly been exaggerated. Although (along with some fundamental
errors) his writings contain, more or less fully developed, several of
the most important principles of the Inductive Method, physical
investigation has now far outgrown the Baconian conception of Induction.
Moral and political inquiry, indeed, are as yet far behind that
conception. The current and approved modes of reasoning on these
subjects are still of the same vicious description against which Bacon
protested; the method almost exclusively employed by those professing to
treat such matters inductively, is the very _inductio per enumerationem
simplicem_ which he condemns; and the experience which we hear so
confidently appealed to by all sects, parties, and interests, is still,
in his own emphatic words, _mera palpatio_.
§ 3. In order to a better understanding of the problem which the
logician must solve if he would establish a scientific theory of
Induction, let us compare a few cases of incorrect inductions with
others which are acknowledged to be legitimate. Some, we know, which
were believed for centuries to be correct, were nevertheless incorrect.
That all swans are white, cannot have been a good induction, since the
conclusion has turned out erroneous. The experience, however, on which
the conclusion rested, was genuine. From the earliest records, the
testimony of the inhabitants of the known world was unanimous on the
point. The uniform experience, therefore, of the inhabitants of the
known world, agreeing in a common result, without one known instance of
deviation from that result, is not always sufficient to establish a
general conclusion.
But let us now turn to an instance apparently not very dissimilar to
this. Mankind were wrong, it seems, in concluding that all swans were
white: are we also wrong, when we conclude that all men's heads grow
above their shoulders, and never below, in spite of the conflicting
testimony of the naturalist Pliny? As there were black swans, though
civilized people had existed for three thousand years on the earth
without meeting with them, may there not also be "men whose heads do
grow beneath their shoulders," notwithstanding a rather less perfect
unanimity of negative testimony from observers? Most persons would
answer No; it was more credible that a bird should vary in its colour,
than that men should vary in the relative position of their principal
organs. And there is no doubt that in so saying they would be right: but
to say why they are right, would be impossible, without entering more
deeply than is usually done, into the true theory of Induction.