A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I
John Stuart Mill · en
Again, there are cases in which we reckon with the most unfailing
confidence upon uniformity, and other cases in which we do not count
upon it at all. In some we feel complete assurance that the future will
resemble the past, the unknown be precisely similar to the known. In
others, however invariable may be the result obtained from the instances
which have been observed, we draw from them no more than a very feeble
presumption that the like result will hold in all other cases. That a
straight line is the shortest distance between two points, we do not
doubt to be true even in the region of the fixed stars. When a chemist
announces the existence and properties of a newly-discovered substance,
if we confide in his accuracy, we feel assured that the conclusions he
has arrived at will hold universally, though the induction be founded
but on a single instance. We do not withhold our assent, waiting for a
repetition of the experiment; or if we do, it is from a doubt whether
the one experiment was properly made, not whether if properly made it
would be conclusive. Here, then, is a general law of nature, inferred
without hesitation from a single instance; an universal proposition from
a singular one. Now mark another case, and contrast it with this. Not
all the instances which have been observed since the beginning of the
world, in support of the general proposition that all crows are black,
would be deemed a sufficient presumption of the truth of the
proposition, to outweigh the testimony of one unexceptionable witness
who should affirm that in some region of the earth not fully explored,
he had caught and examined a crow, and had found it to be grey.
Why is a single instance, in some cases, sufficient for a complete
induction, while in others, myriads of concurring instances, without a
single exception known or presumed, go such a very little way towards
establishing an universal proposition? Whoever can answer this question
knows more of the philosophy of logic than the wisest of the ancients,
and has solved the problem of induction.
CHAPTER IV.
OF LAWS OF NATURE.