A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I
John Stuart Mill · en
see, to an ulterior revision of these spontaneous generalizations
themselves, when the progress of knowledge pointed out limits to them,
or showed their truth to be contingent on some circumstance not
originally attended to. It will appear, I think, from the subsequent
part of our inquiry, that there is no logical fallacy in this mode of
proceeding; but we may see already that any other mode is rigorously
impracticable: since it is impossible to frame any scientific method of
induction, or test of the correctness of inductions, unless on the
hypothesis that some inductions deserving of reliance have been already
made.
Let us revert, for instance, to one of our former illustrations, and
consider why it is that, with exactly the same amount of evidence, both
negative and positive, we did not reject the assertion that there are
black swans, while we should refuse credence to any testimony which
asserted that there were men wearing their heads underneath their
shoulders. The first assertion was more credible than the latter. But
why more credible? So long as neither phenomenon had been actually
witnessed, what reason was there for finding the one harder to be
believed than the other? Apparently because there is less constancy in
the colours of animals, than in the general structure of their anatomy.
But how do we know this? Doubtless, from experience. It appears, then,
that we need experience to inform us, in what degree, and in what cases,
or sort of cases, experience is to be relied on. Experience must be
consulted in order to learn from it under what circumstances arguments
from it will be valid. We have no ulterior test to which we subject
experience in general; but we make experience its own test. Experience
testifies, that among the uniformities which it exhibits or seems to
exhibit, some are more to be relied on than others; and uniformity,
therefore, may be presumed, from any given number of instances, with a
greater degree of assurance, in proportion as the case belongs to a
class in which the uniformities have hitherto been found more uniform.
This mode of correcting one generalization by means of another, a
narrower generalization by a wider, which common sense suggests and
adopts in practice, is the real type of scientific Induction. All that
art can do is but to give accuracy and precision to this process, and
adapt it to all varieties of cases, without any essential alteration in
its principle.