A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
In the case where the approximate proposition is not the ultimatum of
our scientific knowledge, but only the most available form of it for
practical guidance; where we know, not only that most A have the
attribute B, but also the causes of B, or some properties by which the
portion of A which has that attribute is distinguished from the portion
which has it not; we are rather more favourably situated than in the
preceding case. For we have now a double mode of ascertaining whether it
be true that most A are B; the direct mode, as before, and an indirect
one, that of examining whether the proposition admits of being deduced
from the known cause, or from any known criterion, of B. Let the
question, for example, be whether most Scotchmen can read? We may not
have observed, or received the testimony of others respecting, a
sufficient number and variety of Scotchmen to ascertain this fact; but
when we consider that the cause of being able to read is the having been
taught it, another mode of determining the question presents itself,
namely, by inquiring whether most Scotchmen have been sent to schools
where reading is effectually taught. Of these two modes, sometimes one
and sometimes the other is the more available. In some cases, the
frequency of the effect is the more accessible to that extensive and
varied observation which is indispensable to the establishment of an
empirical law; at other times, the frequency of the causes, or of some
collateral indications. It commonly happens that neither is susceptible
of so satisfactory an induction as could be desired, and that the
grounds on which the conclusion is received are compounded of both. Thus
a person may believe that most Scotchmen can read, because, so far as
his information extends, most Scotchmen have been sent to school, and
most Scotch schools teach reading effectually; and also because most of
the Scotchmen whom he has known or heard of, could read; though neither
of these two sets of observations may by itself fulfil the necessary
conditions of extent and variety.