A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
Although the approximate generalization may in most cases be
indispensable for our guidance, even when we know the cause, or some
certain mark, of the attribute predicated; it needs hardly be observed
that we may always replace the uncertain indication by a certain one, in
any case in which we can actually recognise the existence of the cause
or mark. For example, an assertion is made by a witness, and the
question is, whether to believe it. If we do not look to any of the
individual circumstances of the case, we have nothing to direct us but
the approximate generalization, that truth is more common than
falsehood, or, in other words, that most persons, on most occasions,
speak truth. But if we consider in what circumstances the cases where
truth is spoken differ from those in which it is not, we find, for
instance, the following: the witness's being an honest person or not;
his being an accurate observer or not; his having an interest to serve
in the matter or not. Now, not only may we be able to obtain other
approximate generalizations respecting the degree of frequency of these
various possibilities, but we may know which of them is positively
realized in the individual case. That the witness has or has not an
interest to serve, we perhaps know directly; and the other two points
indirectly, by means of marks; as, for example, from his conduct on some
former occasion; or from his reputation, which, though a very uncertain
mark, affords an approximate generalization (as, for instance, Most
persons who are believed to be honest by those with whom they have had
frequent dealings, are really so) which approaches nearer to an
universal truth than the approximate general proposition with which we
set out, viz. Most persons on most occasions speak truth.
As it seems unnecessary to dwell further on the question of the evidence
of approximate generalizations, we shall proceed to a not less important
topic, that of the cautions to be observed in arguing from these
incompletely universal propositions to particular cases.