A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
When a judgment applied to an individual instance is grounded on two
approximate generalizations taken in conjunction, the propositions may
co-operate towards the result in two different ways. In the one, each
proposition is separately applicable to the case in hand, and our object
in combining them is to give to the conclusion in that particular case
the double probability arising from the two propositions separately.
This may be called joining two probabilities by way of Addition; and the
result is a probability greater than either. The other mode is, when
only one of the propositions is directly applicable to the case, the
second being only applicable to it by virtue of the application of the
first. This is joining two probabilities by way of Ratiocination or
Deduction; the result of which is a less probability than either. The
type of the first argument is, Most A are B; most C are B; this thing is
both an A and a C; therefore it is probably a B. The type of the second
is, Most A are B; most C are A; this is a C; therefore it is probably an
A, therefore it is probably a B. The first is exemplified when we prove
a fact by the testimony of two unconnected witnesses; the second, when
we adduce only the testimony of one witness that he has heard the thing
asserted by another. Or again, in the first mode it may be argued that
the accused committed the crime, because he concealed himself, and
because his clothes were stained with blood; in the second, that he
committed it because he washed or destroyed his clothes, which is
supposed to render it probable that they were stained with blood.
Instead of only two links, as in these instances, we may suppose chains
of any length. A chain of the former kind was termed by Bentham[35] a
self-corroborative chain of evidence; the second, a self-infirmative
chain.
When approximate generalizations are joined by way of addition, we may
deduce from the theory of probabilities laid down in a former chapter,
in what manner each of them adds to the probability of a conclusion
which has the warrant of them all.