A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
§ 5. So far as regards the direct application of an approximate
generalization to an individual instance, this question presents no
difficulty. If the proposition, Most A are B, has been established, by a
sufficient induction, as an empirical law, we may conclude that any
particular A is B with a probability proportioned to the preponderance
of the number of affirmative instances over the number of exceptions. If
it has been found practicable to attain numerical precision in the data,
a corresponding degree of precision may be given to the evaluation of
the chances of error in the conclusion. If it can be established as an
empirical law that nine out of every ten A are B, there will be one
chance in ten of error in assuming that any A, not individually known to
us, is a B: but this of course holds only within the limits of time,
place, and circumstance, embraced in the observations, and therefore
cannot be counted on for any sub-class or variety of A (or for A in any
set of external circumstances) which were not included in the average.
It must be added, that we can guide ourselves by the proposition, Nine
out of every ten A are B, only in cases of which we know nothing except
that they fall within the class A. For if we know, of any particular
instance _i_, not only that it falls under A, but to what species or
variety of A it belongs, we shall generally err in applying to _i_ the
average struck for the whole genus, from which the average corresponding
to that species alone would, in all probability, materially differ. And
so if _i_, instead of being a particular sort of instance, is an
instance known to be under the influence of a particular set of
circumstances. The presumption drawn from the numerical proportions in
the whole genus would probably, in such a case, only mislead. A general
average should only be applied to cases which are neither known, nor can
be presumed, to be other than average cases. Such averages, therefore,
are commonly of little use for the practical guidance of any affairs but
those which concern large numbers. Tables of the chances of life are
useful to insurance offices, but they go a very little way towards
informing any one of the chances of his own life, or any other life in
which he is interested, since almost every life is either better or
worse than the average. Such averages can only be considered as
supplying the first term in a series of approximations; the subsequent
terms proceeding on an appreciation of the circumstances belonging to
the particular case.
§ 6. From the application of a single approximate generalization to
individual cases, we proceed to the application of two or more of them
together to the same case.