A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
It may be asked, what happens in the remaining cases? since in this
calculation seven out of twelve cases seem to have exhausted the
possibilities. If T is a B in only six cases of every twelve, and a
not-B in only one, what is it in the other five? The only supposition
remaining for those cases is that it is neither a B nor not a B, which
is impossible. But this impossibility merely proves that the state of
things supposed in the hypothesis does not exist in those cases. They
are cases that do not furnish anything which is both an A and a C.
To make this intelligible, we will substitute for our symbols a concrete
case. Let there be two witnesses, M and N, whose probabilities of
veracity correspond with the ratios of the preceding example: M speaks
truth twice in every thrice, N thrice in every four times. The question
is, what is the probability that a statement, in which they both concur,
will be true. The cases may be classed as follows. Both the witnesses
will speak truly six in every twelve times; both falsely once in twelve
times. Therefore, if they both agree in an assertion, it will be true
six times, for once that it will be false. What happens in the remaining
cases is here evident; there will be five cases in every twelve in which
the witnesses will not agree. M will speak truth and N falsehood in two
cases of every twelve; N will speak truth and M falsehood in three
cases, making in all five. In these cases, however, the witnesses will
not agree in their testimony. But disagreement between them is excluded
by the supposition. There are, therefore, only seven cases which are
within the conditions of the hypothesis; of which seven, veracity exists
in six, and falsehood in one. Resuming our former symbols, in five cases
out of twelve T is not both an A and a C, but an A only, or a C only.
The cases in which it is both are only seven, in six of which it is a B,
in one not a B, making the chance six to one, or 6/7 and 1/7
respectively.
In this correct, as in the former incorrect computation, it is of course
presupposed that the probabilities arising from A and C are independent
of each other. There must not be any such connexion between A and C,
that when a thing belongs to the one class it will therefore belong to
the other, or even have a greater chance of doing so. Otherwise the
not-Bs which are Cs may be, most or even all of them, identical with the
not-Bs which are As; in which last case the probability arising from A
and C together will be no greater than that arising from A alone.