A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
When approximate generalizations are joined together in the other mode,
that of deduction, the degree of probability of the inference, instead
of increasing, diminishes at each step. From two such premises as Most A
are B, Most B are C, we cannot with certainty conclude that even a
single A is C; for the whole of the portion of A which in any way falls
under B, may perhaps be comprised in the exceptional part of it. Still,
the two propositions in question afford an appreciable probability that
any given A is C, provided the average on which the second proposition
is grounded, was taken fairly with reference to the first; provided the
proposition, Most B are C, was arrived at in a manner leaving no
suspicion that the probability arising from it is otherwise than fairly
distributed over the section of B which belongs to A. For though the
instances which are A _may_ be all in the minority, they may, also, be
all in the majority; and the one possibility is to be set against the
other. On the whole, the probability arising from the two propositions
taken together, will be correctly measured by the probability arising
from the one, abated in the ratio of that arising from the other. If
nine out of ten Swedes have light hair, and eight out of nine
inhabitants of Stockholm are Swedes, the probability arising from these
two propositions, that any given inhabitant of Stockholm is
light-haired, will amount to eight in ten; though it is rigorously
possible that the whole Swedish population of Stockholm might belong to
that tenth section of the people of Sweden who are an exception to the
rest.