A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
I answer, we have that right whenever the scientific canons of induction
give it to us; that is, whenever the induction _can_ be complete. We
have it, for example, in a case of causation in which there has been an
_experimentum crucis_. If an antecedent A, superadded to a set of
antecedents in all other respects unaltered, is followed by an effect B
which did not exist before, A is, in that instance at least, the cause
of B, or an indispensable part of its cause; and if A be tried again
with many totally different sets of antecedents and B still follows,
then it is the whole cause. If these observations or experiments have
been repeated so often, and by so many persons, as to exclude all
supposition of error in the observer, a law of nature is established;
and so long as this law is received as such, the assertion that on any
particular occasion A took place, and yet B did not follow, _without any
counteracting cause_, must be disbelieved. Such an assertion is not to
be credited on any less evidence than what would suffice to overturn the
law. The general truths, that whatever has a beginning has a cause, and
that when none but the same causes exist, the same effects follow, rest
on the strongest inductive evidence possible; the proposition that
things affirmed by even a crowd of respectable witnesses are true, is
but an approximate generalization; and--even if we fancy we actually saw
or felt the fact which is in contradiction to the law--what a human
being can see is no more than a set of appearances; from which the real
nature of the phenomenon is merely an inference, and in this inference
approximate generalizations usually have a large share. If, therefore,
we make our election to hold by the law, no quantity of evidence
whatever ought to persuade us that there has occurred anything in
contradiction to it. If, indeed, the evidence produced is such that it
is more likely that the set of observations and experiments on which the
law rests should have been inaccurately performed or incorrectly
interpreted, than that the evidence in question should be false, we may
believe the evidence; but then we must abandon the law. And since the
law was received on what seemed a complete induction, it can only be
rejected on evidence equivalent; namely, as being inconsistent not with
any number of approximate generalizations, but with some other and
better established law of nature. This extreme case, of a conflict
between two supposed laws of nature, has probably never actually
occurred where, in the process of investigating both the laws, the true
canons of scientific induction had been kept in view; but if it did
occur, it must terminate in the total rejection of one of the supposed
laws. It would prove that there must be a flaw in the logical process by
which either one or the other was established: and if there be so, that
supposed general truth is no truth at all. We cannot admit a proposition