A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
§ 2. It is to be remarked in the first place, that the positive evidence
produced in support of an assertion which is nevertheless rejected on
the score of impossibility or improbability, is never such as amounts to
full proof. It is always grounded on some approximate generalization.
The fact may have been asserted by a hundred witnesses; but there are
many exceptions to the universality of the generalization that what a
hundred witnesses affirm is true. We may seem to ourselves to have
actually seen the fact: but, that we really see what we think we see, is
by no means an universal truth; our organs may have been in a morbid
state; or we may have inferred something, and imagined that we perceived
it. The evidence, then, in the affirmative being never more than an
approximate generalization, all will depend on what the evidence in the
negative is. If that also rests on an approximate generalization, it is
a case for comparison of probabilities. If the approximate
generalizations leading to the affirmative are, when added together,
less strong, or in other words, farther from being universal, than the
approximate generalizations which support the negative side of the
question, the proposition is said to be improbable, and is to be
disbelieved provisionally. If however an alleged fact be in
contradiction, not to any number of approximate generalizations, but to
a completed generalization grounded on a rigorous induction, it is said
to be impossible, and is to be disbelieved totally.
This last principle, simple and evident as it appears, is the doctrine
which, on the occasion of an attempt to apply it to the question of the
credibility of miracles, excited so violent a controversy. Hume's
celebrated doctrine, that nothing is credible which is contradictory to
experience, or at variance with laws of nature, is merely this very
plain and harmless proposition, that whatever is contradictory to a
complete induction is incredible. That such a maxim as this should
either be accounted a dangerous heresy, or mistaken for a great and
recondite truth, speaks ill for the state of philosophical speculation
on such subjects.
But does not (it may be asked) the very statement of the proposition
imply a contradiction? An alleged fact, according to this theory, is not
to be believed if it contradict a complete induction. But it is
essential to the completeness of an induction that it shall not
contradict any known fact. Is it not then a _petitio principii_ to say,
that the fact ought to be disbelieved because the induction opposed to
it is complete? How can we have a right to declare the induction
complete, while facts, supported by credible evidence, present
themselves in opposition to it?