A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
It is in this last respect that considerations of analogy have the
highest scientific value. The cases in which analogical evidence affords
in itself any very high degree of probability, are, as we have observed,
only those in which the resemblance is very close and extensive; but
there is no analogy, however faint, which may not be of the utmost value
in suggesting experiments or observations that may lead to more positive
conclusions. When the agents and their effects are out of the reach of
further observation and experiment, as in the speculations already
alluded to respecting the moon and planets, such slight probabilities
are no more than an interesting theme for the pleasant exercise of
imagination; but any suspicion, however slight, that sets an ingenious
person at work to contrive an experiment, or affords a reason for trying
one experiment rather than another, may be of the greatest benefit to
science.
On this ground, though I cannot accept as positive doctrines any of
those scientific hypotheses which are unsusceptible of being ultimately
brought to the test of actual induction, such, for instance, as the two
theories of light, the emission theory of the last century, and the
undulatory theory which predominates in the present, I am yet unable to
agree with those who consider such hypotheses to be worthy of entire
disregard. As is well said by Hartley (and concurred in by a thinker in
general so diametrically opposed to Hartley's opinions as Dugald
Stewart), "any hypothesis which has so much plausibility as to explain a
considerable number of facts, helps us to digest these facts in proper
order, to bring new ones to light, and make _experimenta crucis_ for the
sake of future inquirers."[25] If an hypothesis both explains known
facts, and has led to the prediction of others previously unknown, and
since verified by experience, the laws of the phenomenon which is the
subject of inquiry must bear at least a great similarity to those of the
class of phenomena to which the hypothesis assimilates it; and since the
analogy which extends so far may probably extend farther, nothing is
more likely to suggest experiments tending to throw light upon the real
properties of the phenomenon, than the following out such an hypothesis.
But to this end it is by no means necessary that the hypothesis be
mistaken for a scientific truth. On the contrary, that illusion is in
this respect, as in every other, an impediment to the progress of real
knowledge, by leading inquirers to restrict themselves arbitrarily to
the particular hypothesis which is most accredited at the time, instead
of looking out for every class of phenomena between the laws of which
and those of the given phenomenon any analogy exists, and trying all
such experiments as may tend to the discovery of ulterior analogies
pointing in the same direction.
CHAPTER XXI.
OF THE EVIDENCE OF THE LAW OF UNIVERSAL CAUSATION.