A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
It would seem, therefore, that induction _per enumerationem simplicem_
not only is not necessarily an illicit logical process, but is in
reality the only kind of induction possible; since the more elaborate
process depends for its validity on a law, itself obtained in that
inartificial mode. Is there not then an inconsistency in contrasting the
looseness of one method with the rigidity of another, when that other is
indebted to the looser method for its own foundation?
The inconsistency, however, is only apparent. Assuredly, if induction by
simple enumeration were an invalid process, no process grounded on it
could be valid; just as no reliance could be placed on telescopes, if we
could not trust our eyes. But though a valid process, it is a fallible
one, and fallible in very different degrees: if therefore we can
substitute for the more fallible forms of the process, an operation
grounded on the same process in a less fallible form, we shall have
effected a very material improvement. And this is what scientific
induction does.
A mode of concluding from experience must be pronounced untrustworthy,
when subsequent experience refuses to confirm it. According to this
criterion, induction by simple enumeration--in other words,
generalization of an observed fact from the mere absence of any known
instance to the contrary--affords in general a precarious and unsafe
ground of assurance; for such generalizations are incessantly
discovered, on further experience, to be false. Still, however, it
affords some assurance, sufficient, in many cases, for the ordinary
guidance of conduct. It would be absurd to say, that the generalizations
arrived at by mankind in the outset of their experience, such as these,
Food nourishes, Fire burns, Water drowns, were unworthy of reliance.[28]
There is a scale of trustworthiness in the results of the original
unscientific Induction; and on this diversity (as observed in the fourth
chapter of the present book) depend the rules for the improvement of the
process. The improvement consists in correcting one of these
inartificial generalizations by means of another. As has been already
pointed out, this is all that art can do. To test a generalization, by
showing that it either follows from, or conflicts with, some stronger
induction, some generalization resting on a broader foundation of
experience, is the beginning and end of the logic of Induction.
§ 3. Now the precariousness of the method of simple enumeration is in an
inverse ratio to the largeness of the generalization. The process is
delusive and insufficient, exactly in proportion as the subject-matter
of the observation is special and limited in extent. As the sphere
widens, this unscientific method becomes less and less liable to
mislead; and the most universal class of truths, the law of causation
for instance, and the principles of number and of geometry, are duly and
satisfactorily proved by that method alone, nor are they susceptible of
any other proof.