A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
With respect to the whole class of generalizations of which we have
recently treated, the uniformities which depend on causation, the truth
of the remark just made follows by obvious inference from the principles
laid down in the preceding chapters. When a fact has been observed a
certain number of times to be true, and is not in any instance known to
be false; if we at once affirm that fact as an universal truth or law of
nature, without testing it by any of the four methods of induction, nor
deducing it from other known laws, we shall in general err grossly: but
we are perfectly justified in affirming it as an empirical law, true
within certain limits of time, place, and circumstance, provided the
number of coincidences be greater than can with any probability be
ascribed to chance. The reason for not extending it beyond those limits
is, that the fact of its holding true within them may be a consequence
of collocations, which cannot be concluded to exist in one place because
they exist in another; or may be dependent on the accidental absence of
counteracting agencies, which any variation of time, or the smallest
change of circumstances, may possibly bring into play. If we suppose,
then, the subject-matter of any generalization to be so widely diffused
that there is no time, no place, and no combination of circumstances,
but must afford an example either of its truth or of its falsity, and if
it be never found otherwise than true, its truth cannot depend on any
collocations, unless such as exist at all times and places; nor can it
be frustrated by any counteracting agencies, unless by such as never
actually occur. It is, therefore, an empirical law coextensive with all
human experience; at which point the distinction between empirical laws
and laws of nature vanishes, and the proposition takes its place among
the most firmly established as well as largest truths accessible to
science.