Analysis of Mr. Mill's System of Logic — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
Analysis of Mr. Mill's System of Logic
John Stuart Mill · en
An assumed cause, on the other hand, cannot be accepted as true simply
_because_ it explains the phenomena (since two conflicting hypotheses
often do this even originally, or, as Dr. Whewell himself allows, may at
any rate by modifications be made to do it); nor _because_ it moreover
leads to the prediction of other results which turn out true (since this
shows only what was indeed apparent already from its agreement with the
old facts, viz. that the phenomena are governed by laws partially
identical with the laws of other causes); nor _because_ we cannot
imagine any other hypothesis which will account for the facts (since
there may be causes unknown to our present experience which will equally
account for them). The utility of such assumptions _of causes_ depends
on their being, in their own nature, _capable_ (as Descartes' Vortices
were not, though possibly the Luminiferous Ether may be) of being, at
some time or other, proved directly by independent evidence to be the
causes. And this was, perhaps, all that Newton meant by his _veræ
causæ_, which alone, he said, may be assigned as causes of phenomena.
Assumptions of causes, which fulfil this condition, are, in science,
even indispensable, with a view both to experimental inquiry, and still
more to the application of the Deductive Method. They may be accepted,
not indeed, as Dr. Whewell thinks they may be, as proof, but as
suggesting a line of experiment and observation which may result in
proof. And this is actually the method used by practical men for
eliciting the truth from involved statements. They first extemporise,
from a few of the particulars, a rude theory of the mode in which the
event happened; and then keep altering it to square with the rest of the
facts, which they review one by one.
The attempting, as in Geology, to conjecture, in conformity with known
laws, in what former collocations of known agents (though _not_ known to
have been formerly present) individual existing facts may have
originated, is not Hypothesis but Induction; for then we do not
_suppose_ causes, but legitimately infer from known effects to unknown
causes. Of this nature was Laplace's theory, whether weak or not, as to
the origin of the earth and planets.
CHAPTER XV.
PROGRESSIVE EFFECTS, AND CONTINUED ACTION OF CAUSES.
Sometimes a complex effect results, not (as has been supposed in the
last four chapters) from several, but from _one_ law. The following is
the way.