The Foot-prints of the Creator : $b or, The Asterolepis of Stromness
John Stuart Mill · en
But to leave the experience argument in exactly the state in which it
was left by Hume and La Place, would be doing no real justice to our
subject. It is in that state quite sufficient to establish the fact,
that there can be no real escape from belief in _acts of creation_ never
witnessed by man, to _processes of development_ never witnessed by man;
seeing that a presumed _law_ beyond the cognizance of experience must be
as certainly rejected, on the principle of the argument, as a presumed
_miracle_ beyond that cognizance. It places the presumed _law_ and the
presumed _miracle_ on exactly the same level. But there is a palpable
flaw in the anti-miracle argument. It does not prove that miracles _may
not have taken place_, but that miracles, whether they have taken place
or no, are _not to be credited_, and this simply because they _are_
miracles, _i. e._ violations of the established laws of nature. And if it
be possible for events to take place which man, on certain principles,
is imperatively required not to credit, these principles must of course
serve merely to establish a discrepancy between the actual _state_ of
things, and what is to be _believed_ regarding it. And thus, instead of
serving purposes of truth, they are made to subserve purposes of error;
for the existence of truth in the mind is neither more nor less than the
existence of certain conceptions and beliefs, adequately representative
of what actually _is_, or what really _has taken place_.
I cannot better illustrate this direct tendency of the anti-miracle
argument to destroy truth in the mind, by bringing the mental beliefs
into a state of nonconformity with the possible and actual, than by a
quotation from La Place himself: “We would not,” he says, “give credit
to a man who would affirm that he saw a hundred dice thrown into the
air, and that they all fell on the same faces. If we had ourselves been
spectators of such an event, we would not believe our own eyes till we
had scrupulously examined all the circumstances, and assured ourselves
that there was no trick or deception. After such an examination, we would
not hesitate to admit it, notwithstanding its great improbability; and no
one would have recourse to an inversion of the laws of vision in order to
account for it.” Now, here is the principle broadly laid down, that it
is impossible to communicate by the evidence of testimony, belief in an
event which _might_ happen, and which, if it happened, _ought_ on certain
conditions to be credited. No one knew better than La Place himself, that
the _possibility_ of the event which he instanced could be represented
with the utmost exactitude by figures. The probability, in throwing a
single die, that the ace will be presented on its upper face, is as one
in six,—six being the entire number of sides which the cube can possibly
present, and the side with the ace being one of these;—the probability
that in throwing a _pair_ of dice the aces of both will be at once