The Foot-prints of the Creator : $b or, The Asterolepis of Stromness — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
The Foot-prints of the Creator : $b or, The Asterolepis of Stromness
John Stuart Mill · en
presented on their upper faces, is as one in thirty-six, as against the
one sixth chance of the ace being presented by the one, there are also
six chances that the ace of the other should not concur with it;—and in
throwing _three_ dice, the probability that their three aces should be at
once presented is, of course, on the same principle, as one in six times
thirty-six, or, in other words, as one in two hundred and sixteen. And
thus, in ascertaining the exact degree of probability of the hundred aces
at once turning up, we have to go on multiplying by six, for each die we
add to the number, the product of the immediately previous calculation.
Unquestionably, the number of chances _against_, thus balanced with
the single chance _for_, would be very great; but its existence as a
definite number would establish, with all the force of arithmetical
demonstration, the _possibility_ of the event; and if an eternity were
to be devoted to the throwing into the air of the hundred dice, it would
occur an _infinite number of times_. And yet the principle of Hume and La
Place forms, when adopted, an impassable gulf between this possibility
and human belief. The possibility might be embodied, as we see, in an
actual occurrence,—an occurrence witnessed by hundreds; and yet the
anti-miracle argument, as illustrated by La Place, would cut off all
communication regarding it between these hundreds of witnesses, however
unexceptionable their character as such, and the rest of mankind. The
principle, instead of giving us a right rule through which the beliefs
in the mind are to be rendered correspondent with the reality of things,
goes merely to establish a certain imperfection of transmission from one
mind to another, in consequence of which, realities in fact, if very
extraordinary ones, could not possibly be received as objects of belief,
nor the mental appreciation of things be rendered adequately concurrent
with the state in which the things really existed.