A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Each observation has for an analytic expression a function of the
elements which we wish to determine; and if these elements are nearly
known, this function becomes a linear function of their corrections. In
equating it to the observation itself there is formed _an equation of
condition._ If we have a great number of similar equations, we combine
them in such a manner as to obtain as many final equations as there are
elements whose corrections we determine then by resolving these
equations. But what is the most advantageous manner of combining
equations of condition in order to obtain final equations? What is the
law of the probabilities of errors of which the elements are still
susceptible that we draw from them? This is made clear to us by the
theory of probabilities. The formation of a final equation by means of
the equation of condition amounts to multiplying each one of these by an
indeterminate factor and by uniting the products; it is necessary to
choose the system of factors which gives the smallest opportunity for
error. But it is apparent that if we multiply the possible errors of an
element by their respective probabilities, the most advantageous system
will be that in which the sum of these products all, taken, positively
is a _minimum_; for a positive or a negative error ought to be
considered as a loss. Forming, then, this sum of products, the condition
of the _minimum_ will determine the system of factors which it is
expedient to adopt, or the most advantageous system. We find thus that
this system is that of the coefficients of the elements in each equation
of condition; so that we form a first final equation by multiplying
respectively each equation of condition by its coefficient of the first
element and by uniting all these equations thus multiplied. We form a
second final equation by employing in the same manner the coefficients
of the second element, and so on. In this manner the elements and the
laws of the phenomena obtained in the collection of a great number of
observations are developed with the most evidence.
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