Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
After having arrived at a price based on a mathematical interpretation
of supply and demand, the problem is to determine to what extent
extraordinary forces are at work and to what extent it may be worth
while to combat them by extraordinary measures. If corn is 15 cents a
bushel below the mathematically justified price, will it be advisable
for farmers generally to hold their corn and cause a shortage at the
terminal markets? Will it be advisable to put out newspaper propaganda
showing the public how the market price of corn is below cost of
production, or put on an advertising campaign to increase the demand?
These matters of larger policy are mostly outside the field of
mathematics. They are largely matters of strategy. How much bargaining
force do the farmers represent? To what extent will they follow
directions? At what season of the year is it best to strike?
Generally speaking, a farmers’ drive for higher prices would best begin
about January 1st, and should reach its greatest intensity about March
1st. After March 1st, seasonal scarcity begins, and no further
propaganda is needed. A consumers’ drive for lower prices best begins
about August 15th, and reaches its greatest intensity about October
15th. After October 15th the seasonal surplus, especially of corn and
hogs, begins, and there is no further need for consumers to bring
artificial propaganda to bear. It is interesting to note in this
connection that the “bear” campaign engineered by the governments of the
world in 1919 began in late July and continued until about October 15th,
at which time the weight of the season’s marketings was sufficient to
hold prices down without additional use of newspaper space.
After a mathematical study of prices, the leaders of farm organizations,
in so far as they attempt to influence prices, must consider the state
of the export trade, rate of foreign exchange, ocean freights, world
crop conditions, business conditions at home and abroad, and, in fact,
all the factors which the trained speculators take into account on the
Board of Trade. They must take all of these things into account, and yet
be able on occasion to act decisively. They must learn to play the game
in the same fashion as a skillful whist player. They must not “overbid”
their hand, but bid its full worth, and they must take all the tricks
they can.
To have even a fair chance of success in an effort of this sort, farmers
must set up a very strong statistical organization, in charge of a
highly competent staff of thoroly trustworthy experts. For farmers
themselves have neither the time nor the opportunity to secure the
training necessary to enable them to acquire and assimilate the
information needed.
CAN “PRICE” MAKE “SUPPLY AND DEMAND”?
Dissatisfied farmers and city consumers have been told often that
“supply and demand” makes the price. Economists have backed up the Board
of Trade people and the packers in making this assertion.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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