Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
Since the war, corn prices have not been the result of “supply and
demand” in the sense that they were before the war. During 1919, price
often came first in the corn market, and supply and demand followed
afterward. For example, in January and February, 1919, corn prices broke
20 cents a bushel, in spite of the fact that receipts at central markets
were decidedly below their customary level. Influential people had
postulated the theory that the war was over, and that supply and demand,
if given an opportunity, would operate to bring about a lower price
level. They set a lower price level, but supply and demand refused to
operate on the new level. The lower corn prices which prevailed during
the spring of 1919, however, probably had a very material effect on the
acreage planted. At any rate, there was about four per cent less corn
planted in 1919 than in 1918.
According to the customary view, when the supply is smaller than usual,
the price should be greater than usual, and vice versa. In the hog
market this does not necessarily hold true. In November of 1907, hog
prices were dropped with a terrific jerk, as a result of certain unusual
conditions. The drop was so great that farmers refused to market their
hogs, and receipts of hogs in November of 1907 were about one-third
smaller than in the ordinary November. The price of hogs was lower than
customary by about one-fourth, and the supply of hogs marketed was less
by about one-third. A similar situation prevailed in August of 1919.
Prices dropped about $5 per hundredweight, or faster than ever before in
history. Receipts also dropped, and much fewer hogs were received than
in the ordinary August.
In both 1907 and 1919, the packers figured that the business world was
so upset that to be on the safe side they would best buy their hogs
cheaper than they had been buying them. Farmers were slow to realize
just how great the disturbances had been in the business world, and
failed to understand that in a situation of this sort the packers could
put thru their program for lower prices, in spite of reduced hog
receipts for a month or two. It is in the very nature of things that the
packers can outlast the farmers at such a game. The packers know more
accurately than the farmers the supply-and-demand conditions, and they
know that after a hog reaches two hundred pounds, it is only a question
of weeks till the farmer will let him go, no matter what the price. It
will take an extraordinarily able farmers’ organization to beat the
packers at this game, an organization which holds as its trump card
“ultimate supply and demand.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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