Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
The two charts printed herewith indicate the very close connection
between pork exports and profits in corn raising. The chart giving the
profits and losses on the average acre of corn for the past forty-five
years is re-published from Wallaces’ Farmer of May 17, 1918, the profits
for the years 1918 and 1919 having been added since. It will be noted
that the other chart gives the exports of hog products in pounds from
the United States year by year. The exports are in fiscal years, ending
on June 30th. It will be noted that in a broad, general way, there is a
considerable relationship between the two charts. When pork exports have
been less than normal for a year or two, there is a decided tendency for
corn to become unprofitable, and vice versa. Note how the big hog
exports, starting in 1877 and continuing thru 1881, were accompanied by
a period of unusual corn profits. Note how the falling off in hog
exports, starting with 1882 and continuing until 1890, was also
accompanied by unprofitable corn crops. Then there was a temporary turn
for the better in both corn and hog exports in 1890 and 1891, and a sag
in both until 1897, when hog exports picked up and continued to pick up
to a very marked degree for several years, the change in hog exports
being slowly reflected in corn profits. Generally speaking, pork exports
seem to lead the way, and corn tags along behind. During the war years,
however, corn seemed to move just about as fast as hog exports. The
first year of really heavy hog exports was the year ending June 30,
1916, and the first corn crop to sell unusually high was that harvested
in the fall of 1916. The corn crops of 1916, 1917, 1918 and 1919 have
all been extraordinarily profitable, and the pork exports during these
same years have been unusually heavy. Unquestionably, there is a very
close relationship between hog exports and the general level of corn
prices. We do not mean to say that there is a month-by-month
relationship, or even a year-by-year relationship. We do mean to say,
however, that it is impossible for the United States to export an
unusual volume of hog products without sooner or later raising corn
prices. It may take a year or two for the effect to be felt by corn, but
sooner or later the influence seems to be inevitable.
[Illustration:
Curved line indicates the normal trend of pork exports from the United
States. When the irregular line is above the curved line, pork
exports are unusually large. Large pork exports beginning with 1877
caused the corn belt prosperity beginning with 1879. Large pork
exports beginning with 1898 initiated the corn belt prosperity
beginning with 1920. The 1920 figure is a preliminary estimate.
]
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