Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
Heavy hog exports make for higher corn prices, and higher corn prices
make for higher values in corn belt farm land. Without much question,
the fundamental cause of corn land rising so much more rapidly than land
in other sections is the unusual volume of pork products starting with
the year 1916. It would have been impossible for the corn market to have
reached or sustained its high altitude without the prop of such
tremendous hog exports. In view of the evidence presented, we make bold
to say that hog exports furnish a most delicate barometer of corn belt
prosperity. The huge volume of pork exports during the past three years
is the explanation of corn belt land rising faster than in other
sections. Iowa raises twice as many hogs as any other state, and this
doubtless is the reason why land in Iowa has risen faster than in any
other state.
[Illustration:
Corn profits and losses in the twelve north central states, as
determined by the ratio method described in the chapter on “Cost of
Producing Crops.”
]
What of the future? Is there any chance that pork exports will maintain
their present volume? We may as well face the issue squarely and come to
the conclusion that in all probability pork exports, within three or
four years, will decline to about one-third their present volume. For
four or five years previous to the war, the tendency of pork exports was
somewhat downward. It is reported that at that time Great Britain was
buying less and less of her hog products from the United States, and
that she was thinking of buying more and more of her coarser quality of
hog products from China. At the present time there is considerable
Chinese bacon on the English market. It is also worth while to note in
this connection that the English consumption of meat is now 1,200,000
tons, which is 600,000 tons less than her pre-war consumption of meat.
If England has cut down on her meat consumption one-third, the
probabilities are that the continent of Europe has cut down on its meat
consumption one-half. Probably never again will the world eat as much
meat per capita as it did before the war. Whether we like it or not, we
may as well face the probability that our pork exports are on the
decline, and will not stop declining until they are down to about
one-third of the 1919 volume.
And we may expect that this decline in pork exports will have some
influence on corn prices, and therefore on corn land prices. The future
situation is of course considerably different than that which has
existed at any time during the past forty-five years. The volume of
money in circulation may be such that there will be no actual decline in
corn prices or in corn land prices. Just the same, we may expect that
the unusually favorable position which has been enjoyed by the corn belt
during the past three years will disappear with the decline in pork
exports.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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