Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
We may be painting the situation too black, but we can not see how our
pork exports, by the year 1925, can total to more than 800,000,000 or
possibly 900,000,000 pounds, which is less than one-third the 1919
volume of exports. Of course, another war may break out in the meantime,
or some other extraordinary thing may happen, but in the ordinary course
of events, it would seem that our pork exports must inevitably decrease
until they are considerably less than the pre-war normal. And it would
seem that this decrease in pork exports will have a very considerable
bearing on corn prices, which will in turn have a bearing on corn land
prices. Again, we wish to say, however, that we do not necessarily
believe that corn land in 1925 or 1930 will be selling cheaper than it
is today. Prices of all kinds doubtless will continue to be high in 1925
and 1930, for the simple reason that inflated currency the world over
will still continue. The point we are trying to make is that once hog
exports decline to the pre-war normal, or less, corn belt farming will
cease to enjoy the unusual advantage which it had during the war. It may
for a time be relatively less profitable than farming in certain other
sections of the United States.
There are many curious paradoxes in the hog export trade in the United
States. While a heavy export of hog products sooner or later means high
corn prices, high hog prices and corn belt prosperity generally, yet as
a usual proposition, heavy hog exports do not start except in times of
unusually low hog prices. The heavy exports of 1877–1881 did not start
till hogs had declined below $5 a hundred, and reached their height
while hogs were $3 to $4 a hundred. In 1882, when hog prices climbed to
over $8 per hundred on the Chicago market, hog exports promptly fell
off, and did not climb again until hog prices again went below $4 a
hundred, in 1890. In early 1893, when hog prices on the Chicago market
climbed up to nearly $8 a hundred again, hog exports dropped off very
suddenly. They did not pick up at once in 1896, when hog prices went
under $4 again, but did pick up very rapidly in 1897 and 1898, during
both of which years hog prices on the Chicago market were under $4 a
hundred most of the time. In 1902, there were heavy exports, in spite of
the fact that hog prices were relatively high, but by 1903 the British
apparently had had enough of buying high-priced pork on the American
market, and they curtailed their importations very decidedly. Again, in
1910, the exceedingly high prices stopped the export demand. During the
past three years there have been unprecedented exports in spite of
unusually high prices. But as a matter of fact, hog prices in the United
States have been cheaper during the past three years than any place else
in the world. We have been selling hogs at a great bargain, or Great
Britain would not have bought such tremendous quantities from us.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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