Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
A thoro study of the exports of the United States month by month from
January, 1903, thru the year 1914, indicates that there is a continual
tendency for hog exports to be large when hog prices are low, and vice
versa. The correlation coefficient between hog prices and hog exports is
minus .52. There seems to be a closer correlation between hog exports
and hog prices than between receipts of hogs at central markets and hog
prices. The tendency has been for hog exports to be 40 per cent above
normal when hog prices are 15 per cent below normal; for hog exports to
be 20 per cent above normal when hog prices are 8 per cent below normal,
etc. In November of 1919, when hog exports were about 40 per cent above
normal, it would have appeared, therefore, that hog prices were about 15
per cent below normal. This is a long-swing tendency, and of course
there are occasional exceptions. This part of the problem may be summed
up to the effect that big exports start in times of low hog prices, and
that these exports after a time stimulate both corn and hog prices, with
the result that after a time both corn and hogs become so high in price
that exports dry up, and then corn and hog prices weaken, and the whole
thing starts over again. There was a continuous series of these cycles
previous to the war, and it is to be expected, now that the war is over,
that the phenomena will repeat themselves, altho with some added
variations.
One thing we must remember is that very possibly the export trade of the
United States will not count so big in the future as it has in the past.
The United States has loaned something like $10,000,000,000 to foreign
countries, and every year she will have hundreds of millions of dollars
in interest coming her way, instead of owing hundreds of millions of
dollars to countries across the water, as was the case before the war.
And as long as the United States has so much money coming to her in
interest charges, we must expect that eventually the United States must
import more goods than she exports. This does not necessarily mean the
destruction of the hog industry in the corn belt, but it may mean that
it will have to shift onto a somewhat different basis. It may be that in
the future we must plan on growing enough hogs only to satisfy the needs
of the United States, carefully avoiding a glut which will make it
essential to export any large quantity. Or it may be that the American
farmer is so exceedingly efficient in the business of producing hogs
that the United States will always export large quantities of pork
products, even tho the balance of trade otherwise is against the United
States. If we approach the problem from the standpoint of going after a
large trade in hog products with foreign countries, we must put
ourselves in position to produce with the utmost economy possible.
“Price” talks in the export business, and we shall export large
quantities of hog products whenever we are selling hogs decidedly
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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