Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
For every buyer there must be a seller—or, more accurately, for every
one hundred shares bought one hundred shares must be sold, as the
actual number of _persons_ buying at this stage is likely to be much
greater than the number of _persons_ selling. Early in the advance the
supply of stocks is small and comes from scattered sources, but as
prices rise, more and more holders become satisfied with their profits
and willing to sell. The bears, also, begin to fight the advance by
selling short on every quick rise. A stubborn professional bear will
often be forced to cover again and again, with a small loss each time,
before he finally locates the top and secures a liberal profit on the
ensuing decline.
Those selling at this stage are not, as a rule, the largest holders.
The largest holders are usually those whose judgment is sound enough,
or whose connections are good enough, so that they have made a good
deal of money; and neither a sound judgment nor the best advisers are
likely to favor selling so early in the advance, when much larger
profits can be secured by simply holding on.
The height to which prices can now be carried depends on the underlying
conditions. If money is easy and general business prosperous a
prolonged bull movement may result, while strained banking resources
or depressed trade will set a definite limit to the possible advance.
If conditions are bearish, the driving of the biggest shorts to cover
will practically end the rise; but in a genuine bull market the advance
will continue until checked by sales of stocks held for investment,
which come upon the market only when prices are believed to be unduly
high.
In a sense, the market is always a contest between investors and
speculators. The real investor, looking chiefly to interest return,
but by no means unwilling to make a profit by buying low and selling
high, is ready, perhaps, to buy his favorite stock at a price which
will yield him six per cent. on his investment, or to sell at a price
yielding only four per cent. The speculator cares nothing about
interest return. He wants to buy before prices go up and to sell short
before they go down. He would as soon buy at the top of a big rise at
any other time, provided prices are going still higher.
As the market advances, therefore, one investor after another sees
his limit reached and his stock sold. Thus the volume of stocks to
be carried or tossed from hand to hand by bullish speculators is
constantly rolling up like a snowball. On the ordinary intermediate
fluctuations, covering five to twenty dollars a share, these sales by
investors are small compared with the speculative business. In one
hundred shares of a stock selling at 150, the investor has $15,000; but
with this sum the speculator can easily carry ten times that number of
shares.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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