The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power to National AdvantageAngell, Norman
History
The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power to National Advantage
Angell, Norman
Commercial policy; Disarmament; Imperialism; War; War, Cost of
And so in this matter there are certain test facts which upset
the adroitest statistical legerdemain. Though, really, the
fallacy which regards an addition of territory as an addition
of wealth to the "owning" nation is a very much simpler matter
than the fallacies lying behind gambling systems, which are
bound up with the laws of chance and the law of averages and
much else that philosophers will quarrel about till the end of
time. It requires an exceptional mathematical brain to refute
those fallacies, whereas the one we are dealing with is due
simply to the difficulty experienced by most of us in carrying
in our heads two facts at the same time. It is so much easier
to seize on one fact and forget the other. Thus we realize that
when Germany has conquered Alsace-Lorraine she has "captured" a
province worth, "cash value," in my critic's phrase,
$330,000,000. What we overlook is that Germany has also
captured the people who own the property and who continue to
own it. We have multiplied by _x_, it is true, but we have
overlooked the fact that we have had to divide by _x_, and that
the result is consequently, so far as the individual is
concerned, exactly what it was before. My critic remembered the
multiplication all right, but he forgot the division. Let us
apply the test fact. If a great country benefits every time it
annexes a province, and her people are the richer for the
widened territory, the small nations ought to be immeasurably
poorer than the great, instead of which, by every test which
you like to apply--public credit, amounts in savings banks,
standard of living, social progress, general
well-being--citizens of small States are, other things being
equal, as well off as, or better off than, the citizens of
great States. The citizens of countries like Holland, Belgium,
Denmark, Sweden, Norway are, by every possible test, just as
well off as the citizens of countries like Germany, Austria, or
Russia. These are the facts which are so much more potent than
any theory. If it is true that a country benefits by the
acquisition of territory, and widened territory means general
well-being, why do the facts so eternally deny it? There is
something wrong with the theory.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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