The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics — John Shaqi
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
14. The full meaning and bearing of such a substitution
will only become apparent in some of the subsequent
chapters, but it may be pointed out at once that it is in this
way only that we can with perfect strictness introduce the
notion of a 'limit' into our account of the matter, at any
rate in reference to many of the applications of the subject
to purely statistical enquiries. We say that a certain proportion
begins to prevail among the events in the long run;
but then on looking closer at the facts we find that we have
to express ourselves hypothetically, and to say that if present
circumstances remain as they are, the long run will show its
characteristics without disturbance. When, as is often the
case, we know nothing accurately of the circumstances by
which the succession of events is brought about, but have
strong reasons to suspect that these circumstances are likely
to undergo some change, there is really nothing else to be
done. We can only introduce the conception of a limit, towards
which the numbers are tending, by assuming that
these circumstances do not change; in other words, by substituting
a series with a fixed uniformity for the actual one
with the varying uniformity.[4]
15. If the reader will study the following example,
one well known to mathematicians under the name of the
Petersburg[5] problem, he will find that it serves to illustrate
several of the considerations mentioned in this chapter. It
serves especially to bring out the facts that the series with
which we are concerned must be regarded as indefinitely
extensive in point of number or duration; and that when so
regarded certain series, but certain series only (the one in
question being a case in point), take advantage of the indefinite
range to keep on producing individuals in it whose
deviation from the previous average has no finite limit
whatever. When rightly viewed it is a very simple problem,
but it has given rise, at one time or another, to a good
deal of confusion and perplexity.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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