The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
Although a beginner in practice, he was a veteran in theory, for prior
to entering the financial arena he had made hundreds of imaginary
purchases and sales, nearly always at a profit. Moreover he had
discovered that one may play both sides of the market, apparently with
equal safety, and that the biggest “killings” are said to be made on
the “short” side. By selling “short” on bulges and “covering” (i. e.,
buying the stock in to cover the sale) on reactions, it was possible
not only to make money both ways, but also to avoid the tedium of
waiting inertly for opportune occasions to buy at bargain-prices.
From the experience of others he derived a valuable lesson, namely,
that investors and traders are always too eager to keep their capital
constantly employed; that they are prone to hold stubbornly to one
position, either long or short; and that the wellnigh irresistible
impulse to get back into the market after selling out, whether at a
profit or a loss, has probably been the ruination of more speculators
than any other one cause. Playing the market both ways seemed a sure
means of forestalling this error.
STOCK MARKET TRANSACTIONS APART FROM GAMBLING
The thought of becoming a stock “gambler” was farthest from this man’s
mind; for gambling in any form was contrary to his code of ethics. But
buying and selling legitimate commodities could not be construed as
gambling; therefore stocks and bonds, being legitimate commodities,
could be bought and sold without doing violence to the most sensitive
conscience. In order to gamble, one must “risk or stake something on
an uncertain event;” which is popularly regarded as a vice, and is
made legally wrong because it is said to be injurious to the public
morals. It also is morally wrong to gamble, because if you win you
deprive your fellow-being of something without giving any adequate
return. Our friend contended that stocks bought at figures below their
intrinsic value are so sure to advance, that the transaction does not
come within the given definition of the word _gamble_; also that the
same rule applies to stocks sold at prices far above their worth, no
matter whether for long or short account. He reasoned that if he gained
by selling a stock short, although someone was apt to be the loser, he
had no means of knowing who that someone was, therefore he assumed no
moral responsibility in prudently acquiring money in a businesslike
way, even at the expense of some indefinite person who had been foolish
enough to risk it. If the act of selling stocks which one does not own
is regarded by some as being unethical in the strictest sense, it is
at least sanctioned by general custom. All sorts of goods are sold for
future delivery, even before they are manufactured; and our erstwhile
merchant had often sold leather for forward delivery, while it was
still in process of tanning; hence he had no scruples against selling
stocks in anticipation of being able to buy and deliver them later.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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