The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
It is generally conceded that the public is always arrayed on the
“long” side (that is, the buying side) of the market; it is also
universally admitted, at least by those who know, that the so-called
“public” always bears the brunt of stock market losses; therefore our
friend decided that he would act the part of wisdom and go “short” of
the same number of shares that he had previously bought and sold,--the
idea being that before selling his long stock he convinced himself that
approximately the top prices had been reached, in which case the market
would naturally react. But for some inexplicable reason it failed to
run true to his expectations; that is, the probable course deducible
from charts and precedents. Per contra, the prices continued stubbornly
to rise. When he had lost all his profits he backed his judgment by
his actions, and doubled his short sales; and at five points higher
he doubled again, for a break was long overdue. Being short upwards
of three thousand shares in a rapidly rising market is a tremendous
mental strain, even for a seasoned trader; and naturally our novice
became somewhat nervous. Some stock market wiseacre--one or more of
which class are usually to be found lounging about every brokerage
office--consolingly remarked that while stocks have a certain fixed
bottom, they have no top; which increased his anxiety.
After studying charts and various compilations of figures and facts
about earnings and past market performances, he concluded that
Bethlehem Steel, selling at $45 a share, was not worth half that price;
also that Studebaker at $35 was much too high. After an extended
inquiry into the past and prospective earnings of these two companies
he sold short a thousand shares of each; but instead of reacting they
steadily maintained their upward course with the rest of the list. His
broker called for more margin, and he put up another hundred thousand
in bonds. He was advised to “cover” and go “long,” but he stood firmly
by his convictions--and the charts.
“That’s why the public all lose,” he declared; “they get ‘cold feet’
and shift positions at the wrong time.” From a personal friend who was
a director of the new General Motors Corporation he got an “inside
tip” that that stock, selling at $82, was too high, so he added a
few hundred shares of it to his short account. Meantime the country’s
commerce and the entire group of stocks, moved forward with the steady
even tread of an army on parade.
THE STOCK MARKET PRODUCES A NEW PHENOMENON--TURNS WORLD-WIDE DISASTER
INTO LOCAL PROSPERITY
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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