The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
In a bear market a discouraged bull is at least not despised; he may
find a sympathetic sufferer; but in a bull market no one ever wastes
any compassion on a bear, or admits sympathetic kinship with him. He is
popularly regarded as a pessimist, a destroyer of values, a discordant
note, an uninvited guest at a banquet. If it be a true saying that
“misery loves company,” it must follow that wretchedness is accentuated
by noncommunion with fellow-sufferers; in which case it may be said
that the situation of a bear in a rousing bull market represents the
_ne plus ultra_ of hopeless desolation.
At length it became a mooted question whether to “sit tight” and wait
for the boisterous storm to blow over, or cover his shorts, buy more
stocks and go with the tide. Heretofore he had maintained a stolid
attitude, born of self-confidence, inspired by a triumphant business
career, and supported by precedent and every reasonable prophecy. The
traders had simply gone mad and were rushing headlong to their ruin,
as they had often done before. History was merely repeating itself.
It was a time for sound cool-headed judgment, and he stood firm in
the determination not to lose his head and join in any such reckless
carousal. But the more he reasoned and studied the charts, the more
unprecedented and obstinate the market became. One thing he failed
to consider was, that the favorite caprice of the stock market is to
violate precedent, and to do the thing least to be expected of it.
The newspapers gave front page double-column headings to business
improvement and stock market news--the enormous demand for textiles,
increased prices for all commodities, easy money conditions, all labor
disputes amicably adjusted, and the stage all set for the greatest era
of prosperity the world had ever known. The financial columns of the
newspapers literally teemed with bullish interviews with financiers and
bullish reports in all lines of trade and finance. There was scarcely
a discordant note in the rush and rhythm of progress; and when one was
faintly sounded the general din instantly smothered it. Even the great
cataclysm in Europe was now construed as an additional bull point,
because our factories were all running night and day to supply the
armies with equipment and provisions. It was argued that the more they
fought the more supplies they would need, and the more money we would
make in furnishing them; also that the more ships the Germans torpedoed
the greater demand there would be upon our shipyards to replace them.
The nation had indeed gone prosperity mad, while the rest of the
world was going to destruction--certainly an irregular and puzzling
phenomenon. Occasionally when some veteran writer piped a note of
warning to stock speculators, it was met with a new outburst of bullish
demonstration, and the market swept on like a conflagration in a city
built of tinderwood. Stocks that had lain dormant for months suddenly
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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