The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
came to life and became the favorites of powerful cliques; corporations
that had never earned their fixed charges were said to be piling up
enormous surpluses, the railroads and steamship lines were glutted with
traffic, the factories, steel foundries and ammunition plants were
running night shifts, banks and millionaires were said to be buying
everything for control, whole fleets of grain-laden ships were going
abroad and the farmers were simply wallowing in wealth; the retail
stores were jammed with eager customers, labor was all employed at high
wages, and Big Business was rushing with all the force of an avalanche
along Prosperity Highway, without a danger signal in sight.
Gradually, though manifestly, it became evident that to resist such
a tremendous momentum was as expensive as it was exasperating; and
his hitherto fond illusions of greater wealth were dispelled by a
terrifying reality. But a man who has been right all his life is
not easily convinced that he is wrong in a market position that
seems justified by common sense and fundamental conditions. And yet,
however steadfast human resolution may be, it is wellnigh impossible
to maintain a fixed attitude in opposition to such a cumulative and
overwhelming force. The sensation of being short in a rampant bull
market has been pictured as similar to that of being chained by the
heels to a rising balloon, without any idea of the height to which
the gas will carry it--not a cheery picture for the contemplation of
one who is bearishly disposed. It is therefore easy to understand
how likely one is under these “third degree” operations to lose his
mental bearings, his nerve--and his money. A trader who is long of
stocks knows to a certainty how much he can lose on any given number of
shares; but on the short side there is no limit to what one may lose,
even on a few hundred shares. The loss of a definite sum, whatever the
amount may be, can be borne with equanimity by a man of nerve; but to
maintain a short position in a bull market gives one about as uneasy a
feeling as it would to have a number of outstanding promissory notes
with the amounts left blank for some unknown person to fill in. It
keeps one in a constant state of fear, and fear knows no limitations;
it contemplates and magnifies every baneful possibility.
[Illustration]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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