The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
Reverting again to the characteristic bent of speculators who trade
on the constructive side of the market, some years ago a man of
my acquaintance bought a hundred shares of Union Pacific at $120
a share, just for “a turn of a few points,” as he expressed it.
Within a few days he sold it at $125, making a net gain of $500,
less commission,--equal to more than five years’ interest at six per
cent. on the $1500 he put up as margin. Someone afterwards convinced
him that he was silly to have sold out at $125, because the stock
was sure to go to $150; therefore he bought it back at $130, and at
$135 he took on another hundred. The stock dropped back to $125, and
on hearing from someone else that it was likely to go down to par he
sold the two hundred shares at a net loss of $1500 and commissions.
About that time somebody discovered that the Company was likely to
distribute its large surplus, consisting of Baltimore & Ohio stock and
other securities, and the stock rebounded to $135, at which figure my
friend repurchased the two hundred shares he had sold at $125. At $139
he bought two hundred more, which, in a spasm of fright, he sold when
the price suddenly dipped down to $133. Later, at $140, he recovered
his nerve, also the last two hundred shares he had sold at a loss. At
$160 the stock looked cheaper than it had at $120, and having a safe
margin of profit to trade on he bought five hundred more. At $170 it
was reported that Harriman (who controlled the road) was buying the
stock, and encouraged by the entry of such distinguished company my
friend plunged in and bought a thousand shares more. When the stock got
to about $190 it was noised about that the great railroad magnate had
completed his purchases, so the price went down a few points, again
frightening our trader into taking a loss on three hundred shares he
had bought at $189. But concurrently some wise tipster had discovered
that the price had been depressed purposely, to enable other “inside
interests” to accumulate a large line, and in a short time the price
climbed to $200. By this time my affluent friend was becoming somewhat
disturbed and confused, but lured by the prospect of greater gains he
managed to regain his composure, and bought five hundred shares more;
figuring that as long as he was trading on profits he had everything to
gain, and nothing to lose. From here on the stock maintained a fairly
steady upward course, and not to be outdone by the greedy “insiders”
he bought three hundred shares at every point advance until the price
reached $212, when he had accumulated fifty-one hundred shares. The
net paper profit of well over $100,000 looked exceedingly tempting,
and acting upon his own judgment, seconded by the good advice of his
broker, he wisely closed out the entire lot, invested the net proceeds
in government bonds, bade good-bye to the market, and planned a three
months’ excursion to Europe. So far, so good; but--
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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