The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
“U. P.” (along with other stocks) continued its upward course,
accompanied by much excitement and jubilation among the “longs” with an
equal measure of apprehension and despondency among the hard-squeezed
“shorts.” When our trader was preparing for his departure he happened
to read a review by some stock market wizard who reported that
according to “late inside information” a dividend of $100 a share in
securities would be declared on Union Pacific, and that the stock would
pay $10 a share in annual dividends; consequently at $250 a share it
would be cheap. Whereupon my friend, who occupied the uncomfortable
position of a “sold out bull,” became wretchedly aware that he had
dropped out of the race long before the course was completed, and
by doing so he had thrown away a grand opportunity of making nearly
$200,000 more.
It may here be explained that the mental attitude of a “sold out bull”
toward a rising market is much the same as that of a bulldog chained
in his kennel while a dog fight is going on outside. A speculator may
stand by and view with unruffled complacency the most enormous profits
of others in securities that he never owned, but if one of his own pet
stocks continues to advance after he has sold out, it not only reflects
the error of his judgment, but the remorse he suffers in contemplating
the additional sum he _might_ have made dampens all the pleasure of
reflecting upon the profit he actually _did_ make.
Reluctant to admit such a costly blunder in judgment, determined not to
be surpassed by his fellow-traders, and flushed with the victory of his
recent exploit, when Union Pacific was selling at about $215 this “sold
out bull” put in an unlimited order to buy five thousand shares. When
his broker on the floor of the exchange began bidding for this amount
of stock the crowd instantly surmised that some big operator was being
“squeezed” on the short side, and before the purchase was completed
the price had jumped to $219, the highest point it ever reached. After
steadying itself for a while at around this figure it took a downward
plunge, and a few weeks later our trader who had retired from the
market with upwards of $100,000 profit, closed out the last hundred
shares, saving a little less than the $1500 he originally put up as
margin. His escape from utter financial ruin was largely due to the
insistent advice of his broker that he should steadily lighten his load
on the way down, rather than try to protect the whole lot by putting up
additional margin.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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