The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
The investor in stock market securities may equip himself, free of
cost, with full information concerning every listed security; what the
company’s earnings have been over a period of years, how much stock and
how many bonds are outstanding, the highest and lowest prices at which
the stock has ever sold, and all such matters in the fullest detail. He
therefore enters “the game,” as the stock market is oftentimes called,
with his eyes open, and the cards all faced up on the table. But if he
deviates from sound principles and resorts to dabbling in stocks that
he knows nothing about, except from hearsay among traders and market
tipsters, and undertakes to guess the maneuvers of cliques who are
manipulating them, he has no one to blame but himself for indulging in
such an expensive folly.
BOOKS TEACH WISDOM, BUT EXPERIENCE IS A MORE PRACTICAL INSTRUCTOR
It may be set down as an axiomatic truth that no one can learn the art
of making money in the stock market by reading statistics, charts,
precedents, theoretical disquisitions and instructions. Of course it is
not needful, nor would it be any more practicable than it is necessary,
to set forth any fixed rules or maxims governing one’s procedure in
any other line of business or any other profession, since no one
could use them advantageously without the requisite qualifications,
such as adaptability, shrewdness and practice. Hundreds of different
combinations of cards are laid out in books of instructions on auction
bridge, with explicit directions as to how to bid and play the hands,
yet nobody ever heard of a good bridge player being made solely from
book instruction. One reason is that there are actually millions of
combinations of cards. Also in stock trading there is an indefinite
number of needful “don’ts” which the most resourceful person can
neither contemplate nor anticipate. Every stock market cycle shatters
some precedent; every era produces new phenomena. Everyone who has ever
studied a book of instructions on how to play golf knows how impossible
it is to take up any golf club and make it perform according to
schedule. A firm stance, feet well apart, body under full control, the
right knee stiff, the left arm almost rigid as it follows the right in
a low backward swing; and most important of all, the eye firmly fixed
on the ball, while the club whips through the air, and after lifting
the ball, follows on through, carrying both arms forward to their
full length, and many other things which I never could do, and cannot
now recall; all these directions the would-be player will learn as he
knows his A, B, C’s; but in his intense eagerness to swat the ball he
disregards most, or all, of the stated essentials, and at the moment
of impact, while his club is ploughing up the sod two or three inches
behind the ball, his eyes are cast heavenward in fervent anticipation
of watching its flight. Likewise the speculator figures his profits
long before they materialize.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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