The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
This reminds me that some years ago, when Calumet & Hecla Mining stock
was selling at $850 a share, on which amount it netted only a small
dividend return, I asked a friend (who owned a large amount of the
stock) why he didn’t sell it and reinvest in other securities. My
argument was that the stock having already declined from $1000 a share,
would probably go much lower, considering that the earning capacity
of the mine was in all probability as great as it ever would be;
therefore the chances were more in favor of a decrease than an increase
in earnings and dividends. To all of which he readily assented, but
in view of the fact that he had bought the stock at $50 a share it
was paying a very high rate of interest on his original investment;
and for sentimental reasons he preferred to keep it,--which he did.
Such instances are not at all uncommon; nor is it uncommon to hear
intelligent business men remark that they know they ought to sell
certain investment securities, because the market price has risen out
of all proportion to the income yield, but other good securities are
all so high that they really don’t know what to put their money in. The
chances are probably a hundred to one that if the money were put in the
bank and allowed to rest a while at three per cent. interest, it could
within a few months be reinvested in the same securities, or other
equally good ones, at a net gain of three to five years’ interest, or
even more. This is not stock gambling; it is merely business prudence.
WHIMS AND FALLACIES IN SPECULATION
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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