The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
Traders and investors too often become stubbornly insistent on
recouping their stock market losses in the same identical securities
in which they lost their money. After having lost a large sum of money
there is undoubtedly a special gratification in seeing it return
by the same channel through which it escaped, but the enjoyment of
this peculiar satisfaction is hardly commensurate with the risk that
many people run in attaining it. In discussing this point some years
ago with a friend who owned a thousand shares of stock in a bankrupt
railway company which had cost him $50 a share, and was then selling
at $15 a share, with a fifty to one chance that the road would go into
receivership, I argued that while the loss of $35,000 was a large
and bitter pill to swallow, the chances were that it would not be
made smaller or more palatable by the inevitable receivership, and
that he might as well salvage what he could from the wreckage of his
investment. After all, there were dozens of really _good_ stocks that
had declined more than $35 a share; stocks that would eventually “come
back” when the market turned about; whereas with his stock there was
a probable assessment of $10 to $15 a share staring him in the face,
and after paying that, the stock was likely to sell at a figure less
than the assessment to be paid, judging by past performance of the
stocks of other companies in receivership. The road was tremendously
over-bonded, over-capitalized, encumbered with every conceivable
sort of debt, and not earning its fixed charges. He vehemently
declared,--“No, I’ll be damned if I’ll allow those thieves to do me out
of that money; they shall pay it all back, and more with it!” He held
tenaciously to his resolution, the road fell into receivership, and a
few months later he could have bought the stock in the open market at
two dollars a share less than he had paid in on the assessment.
A favorite and amusing pastime with a multitude of traders is to
cajole themselves into believing that when some stock they own becomes
increasingly active after a considerable advance, the renewed activity
is a sure indication that “bankers and insiders” are accumulating it
for a still further advance. It is well to remember, however, that
bankers and insiders do most of their accumulating before the rise
begins, and while the outside public is doing its accumulating the
bankers and insiders are quietly supplying the stocks. It is quite
clear that if the insiders pursued the same tactics as the public they
would soon be relegated to the ranks of the outsiders.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account