The Stock Exchange from WithinVan Antwerp, William C. (William Clarkson)
History
The Stock Exchange from Within
Van Antwerp, William C. (William Clarkson)
New York Stock Exchange; Stock exchanges
If the critics are correct in their contention that pressure of easy
money in the New York market holds out inducements for foolhardy
speculation on the Stock Exchange, the year 1909, just cited, should
have witnessed a great boom in securities. If speculators could
borrow at 1½ per cent. on securities that netted 5 and 6 per cent.,
the theory of our adversaries is that this disproportion entices a
large number of people into such speculative ventures that inflation
takes place, followed by collapse. That nothing of the sort occurred
shows that critics, like other less gifted persons, may err; it
shows, too, what every thoughtful person knows, that booms are not
created on the Stock Exchange, which merely reflects in its dealings
external conditions of all sorts, among them psychological processes
which neither brokers nor money markets may hope to control. As a
matter of record, 1909 showed but little increase in the volume of
business transacted on the Stock Exchange as compared with 1908, and
the increase, such as it was, represented nothing more than a natural
recovery from the paralysis following the débacle of 1907, plus an
investment of funds at attractive levels. The same state of affairs
prevailed in 1910. From June to December of that year call money rates
almost never exceeded 3 per cent., and time money might be had at from
3½ to 5, yet far from stimulating speculation--far from revealing an
excessive employment of bank funds by stockbrokers--transactions both
in shares and bonds dwindled to insignificant proportions.
Cheap money is by no means a “bull argument” from the Stock Exchange
point of view, because it arises from dull conditions in commerce and
industry, and there can be no boom in the securities which represent
the nation’s business unless mills and factories and railroads are
prosperous. There have been more bull markets with tight money, or with
money in the neighborhood of 6 per cent., than in cheap money markets
of the sort just described. This is not equivalent to saying that a
prolonged rise can be conducted through a period of dear money. As a
matter of Stock Exchange experience such a condition seldom arises,
because the Stock Exchange discounts the future, foresees those
economic conditions that spell prosperity for the country, and advances
the prices of securities on a money market that has not yet felt the
demands of improved conditions.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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