The Foot-prints of the Creator : $b or, The Asterolepis of Stromness
John Stuart Mill · en
Nor is the case different when, for a _possibility_ which the
arithmetician can represent by figures, we substitute the _miracle_
proper. Neither Hume nor La Place ever attempted to show that miracles
could not take place; they merely directed their argument against a
belief in them. The wildest sceptic must admit, if in any degree a
reasonable man, that there _may_ exist a God, and that that God _may_
have given laws to nature. No _demonstration_ of the non-existence of a
Great First Cause has been ever yet attempted, nor, until the knowledge
of some sceptic extends over all space, ever _can_ be rationally
attempted. Merely to _doubt_ the fact of God’s existence, and to give
reasons for the doubt, must till then form the highest achievements of
scepticism. And the God who _may_ thus exist, and who _may_ have given
laws to nature, _may_ also have revealed himself to man, and, in order to
secure man’s reasonable belief in the reality of the revelation, _may_
have temporarily suspended in its operation some great natural law,
and have thus shown himself to be its Author and Master. Such seems to
be the philosophy of miracles; which are thus evidently not only _not_
impossibilities, but even not _improbabilities_. Even were we to permit
the sceptic himself to fix the numbers representative of those several
_mays_ in the case, which I have just repeated, the chances against
them, so to speak, would be less by many thousand times than the chances
against the hundred dice of La Place’s illustration all turning up
aces. The existence of a Great First Cause is at least as probable—the
sceptic himself being judge in the matter—as the _non_-existence of a
Great First Cause; and so the probability in this first stage of the
argument, instead of being, as in the case of the single die, only one
to six, is as one to one. Again,—in accordance with an expectation so
general among the human family as to form one of the great instincts of
our nature,—an instinct to which every form of religion, true or false,
bears evidence,—it is in no degree less probable that this God should
have revealed himself to man, than that he should _not_ have revealed
himself to man; and here the chances are again as one to one,—not, as in
the second stage of the calculation on the dice, as one to thirty-six.
Nor, in the third and last stage, is it less probable that God, in
revealing himself to man should have given miraculous evidence of the
truth of the revelation, so that man “might believe in Him for His work’s
sake,” than that He should _not_ have done so; and here yet again the
chances are as one to one,—not as one to two hundred and sixteen. No
rational sceptic could fix the chances lower; nay, no rational sceptic,
so far as the _existence_ of a Great First Cause is concerned, would be
inclined to fix them so low: and yet it is in order to annihilate all
belief in a possibility against which the chances are so few as to be